The Cargo Cult of Ufology.
During the Pacific Island hoping campaign by the US Military in world war 2, the US Navy would sail up to an island, the Seabee’s would disembark and construct landing sites and facilities for the United States Army Air Corps. Who would then fly in and set up operations.
In order to conduct their operations, it was necessary for the Army Air Corps to fly in a truly staggering volume of supplies. Cargo, as it was called.
Very often these remote islands had populations of native peoples who had little or no contact with the rest of the world, and even less contact with the modern technology of the day.
These native peoples became the recipients of a considerable amount of wealth beyond anything they had ever imagined could exist.
And then something unexpected, at least by the natives happened. One day, the cargo went away. In some cases it was because the theater of operations moved and the island no longer held a strategic value, and in other’s because the war ended.
Then, something else unexpected happened, unexpected by the US Military and pretty much the entire technologically advanced western civilization. Something that wasn’t noticed for 15 or 20 years.
The natives of these remote islands started building crude mock-up versions of the Army Air Corps aircraft, runways and facilities. They begun holding regular ceremonies and making offerings to the Cargo providers in the hopes of luring them back to the islands in the hopes of once again gaining access to the wealth that the Cargo gods had previously lavished on them.
Here is a video documentary explaining the Cargo cults.
Modern Ufologists are exactly the same thing minus any evidence that Extraterrestrials actually exist.
Oh, they have mountains of evidence, sighting, eyewitness testimony, photographs. All, and I must stress, ALL of which lacks sufficient physical evidence to actually be designated as, actual physical evidence. Worse still, to explain this utter and complete lack of actual physical evidence, they are forced to rely on conspiracy theories about secret government agencies and Men in Black.
When confronted with facts regarding the laws of physics and probability, like their conspiracy theories about secret government agencies and the Men in Black, they are forced to fall back on the notion that Extraterrestrials have advanced technologies that humans cannot understand that allow them to violate the laws of physics and probability.
Am I stating as any kind of fact that ET’s do not exist? No, I categorically am not. Am I stating as any kind of fact that ET’s have never visited earth? Again, absolutely not. Secret government agencies absolutely do exist. The Men in Black? Who knows.
What I am stating as a incontrovertible fact, is that A) no matter how advanced an Alien civilization is, it is still constrained by the same laws of physics that we are. B) The laws of probability are not going to be violated regardless of what near godlike technology you posses.
The Universe we exist in has something known as the “Light Horizon” It’s a physical distance from which light can never reach earth. It’s a 45 billion light year radius from earth. The Universe is roughly 90 billion light years across. It contains at out best mathematical approximation, in excess of some 99 TRILLION galaxies.
Even the smallest of those galaxies have hundreds of billions of stars, and as we know know, the majority of those stars have between 3 and 5 planets.
In short, there are a quadrillion quadrillion quadrillion (that’s 1.0 * 10^45., oe if you prefer, a 1 with 45 zeros behind it) stars in the Universe, and the planets out number the stars by something on the order of 10 to 1. 1.0 * 10^46 planets. Try keeping in mind, that 1 light year is 5.87 TRILLION miles.
Even stars that are considered close to each other are separated by an average of greater than 5 light years. There are only 3 stars near our sun that are closer than 5 light years, and they are a trianary system known as Alpha Centauri.
Ok, look, I get it. Numbers this big are impossible for most people to grasp. Let me try and explain it to you like this. The odds of you wining the lottery are 1 in 58 billion. If those odds were miles, they would only get you as far as Mars, for half of it’s journey around the sun. In other words, they wouldn’t even get you out of our solar system, let alone the 25 TRILLION miles to the closest star to our sun.
Recent mapping results of astronomers have concluded, that, surprisingly and contrary to previous beliefs, the Milky-way is actually larger then Andromeda. Andromeda has been estimated to contain over 1.3 trillions stars.
That means, it’s probably safe to assume Andromeda has around 13 trillion planets in it. Andromeda is 2 million light years away, and it’s the closest galaxy to the Milky-way. Andromeda is 1.174 * 10^19 miles away. Are you getting that? 11,740,000,000,000,000,000,000. miles.
At 58 billion to 1, your odds of winning the lottery are a paltry 1 *
5.8^6. Not, 1.174 * 10^19, Not
1.0 * 10^45, or even 1.0 * 10^46. By comparison, your odds of being struck by lightning are 1*15.3^3.
Is any of this making sense to you yet?
Now… Personally, I would put the odds of the corrupt Biden Administration trotting out UFO conspiracy theories in an attempt to distract the American people from his corruption at something approaching 1*10^2.. or a mere 1000 to 1. Odds of ET ever visiting earth at somewhere in the neighborhood of.. 1*10^50.
So, not mathematically impossible. In a universe with 1*10^45 galaxies and 1*10^46 planets. Where galaxies are millions of light years apart and stars are trillions of miles apart, virtually ever single star in the universe would need to have technologically advanced aliens civilizations on it before the odds of them ever visiting us would even remotely approaching the odds that a corrupt government would use the idea of ET crashing on earth.